Chia market update
As we journey through the 2025 chia season, Paraguay, our global chia powerhouse, is facing a frosty challenge that could reshape the market.
Recent cold snaps in southern Paraguay have introduced frost conditions that may impact chia crops. While early-planted fields are progressing well, later sowings from April and May are more susceptible to frost damage during critical growth phases . These temperature dips, though not unprecedented, are causing concern among farmers and traders.
If favorable weather persists, national yields may average around 500 kg/ha, with total chia production potentially ranging from 65,000 to 75,000 metric tons . However, the frost risk could lead to lower yields, especially in later-planted fields. The full extent of the impact will become clearer as the harvest progresses.
Between July 2024 and March 2025, Paraguay exported over 63,000 tons of chia seeds, a 36% increase year-on-year . The market experienced early depletion, with volumes exhausted by November 2024. This was nearly four months ahead of the usual cycle. With China’s market size estimated at 12,000 tons, this will likely increase field-level price competition and create new price dynamics.
The combination of potential frost damage and robust global demand is creating a volatile market environment. Buyers are advised to secure forward contracts for organic chia, as prompt shipment stocks are nearly depleted . Sellers may consider holding on to stock to increase selling value if weather risks persist, especially in Paraguay.
To navigate these uncertainties:
Diversify Suppliers: Explore sourcing options from multiple regions to mitigate the risk of supply disruptions.
Monitor Weather Patterns: Stay informed about climatic developments in key chia-producing areas.
Engage with Trusted Partners: Collaborate with suppliers who provide timely updates and reliable supply chains.
Stay tuned for more Arrow Foods updates.
